The end of the clay court season is upon us and it may be the first time since 2005 that Rafael Nadal heads into the tournament as second favourite for The Musketeer's Trophy. The Parisian crowd must have forgotten what it feels like for someone other than Nadal to be favourite for the crown, but Serbia's Novak Djokovic is no stranger to the French audience and the lone slam to elude the Serb is now firmly within reach having beat Nadal in Rome to achieve the "favourite" status.
Last year saw Novak push Nadal all the way in a titanic tussle in the semi-finals which Nadal won in the final set 9-7. But Nadal's game just seems a little off this season and this is not just my thought but also of those of leading tennis pundits and journalists. You can never rule Nadal out of a title he has won a record eight times but it does seem that this is Novak's to lose, he truly is at the peak of his game and the hunger to win the slam that his CV is missing will be evident when he hits his first ball at Roland Garros. That first ball struck will be against Portugal's Joao Sousa currently ranked 42 in the world. Novak won't have any problems against the Portuguese who he thrashed in the US Open last year with Sosa only managing to take 4 games in total against the world no.2. But the draw doesn't look to plain sailing for Djokovic, his second round match could be against seasoned clay-courter Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Jeremy Chardy who beat Federer in the Rome Masters and a potential fourth round match with France's own Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looks very likely. After this lurking in the shadows is a possible encounter with Federer in the semis, with the last match between the pair at Roland Garros ending with Federer winning in four sets in the 2011 semis so expect some more fireworks if this match does materialise.
Nadal's side of the draw doesn't look any easier. The 13-time slam champion has a tricky encounter with American journey-man Robby Ginepri, his ranking of 280 doesn't hide the fact that he is a former semi-finalist at the US Open in 2005 and made the fourth round at the French in 2010. A second round encounter with up and coming Austrian Dominic Thiem is also a little daunting for Nadal. The 20 year-old has only just broken into the senior tour this year and has already claimed his first major win over a top 10 player with a three set victory against Stan Wawrinka at the Madrid Open. Although Dominic hasn't made the same sort of progress that Nadal did at his age (Nadal won the his first French title at 19) the Austrian is a promising prospect for the future and in this competitive era of tennis, any win over a top 10 player should not be under-estimated especially against a slam champion in Wawrinka. More worrying for Nadal is potential fourth round and quarter-final matches against compatriots Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer respectively. Both players have claimed victories over Nadal this year in the clay court events and they'll both have confidence from them wins that they really can trouble Nadal, so this will definitely make for an interesting second week for us and the French crowd if all seeds make it through.
The top two seeds will always go into most majors as favourites, but what of the other recent slam champions. Nobody can write off 17-time slam winner Roger Federer, in fact the Swiss has so far had a pretty good year compared to 2013. He reached the semis in Australia losing to Nadal and was runner-up at the Monte Carlo Masters to Wawrinka. The big question is, can Federer sustain the good form going into the busy summer season? Last year his form completely deserted him after the French, but with new coach Stefan Edberg behind him, there will be real optimism in the Federer camp that he can cause some problems at Roland Garros this year. His lacklustre performance against Tsonga at the quarter final stage in France last year was difficult to watch for the Fed-Express fans, but with a comfortable looking draw for the Swiss that doesn't include a dangerous opponent until sixth seed Tomas Berdych in the quarter-finals, there is still belief for Federer and his fans that an 18th slam could be on the horizon. His compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka who won his first slam this year at the Australian Open is now at the top of his game and will head into this year's tournament with the attitude that he can win it. Coach Magnus Norman has instilled a different mentality to Wawrinka's mind and game since becoming coach in 2013 and it has paid dividends as Stan has produced some of the best performances of his career which culminated in a four set victory over Nadal in the Melbourne final this year. Although Wawrinka rates clay as his favourite surface and with a Masters 1000 title at Monte Carlo in April to his name, the Swiss seems a long way off in comparison to Nadal and Djokovic on clay. This is in stark contrast compared to putting either of the pair against Stan on hard courts, at this point in time Wawrinka would probably come out on top. A first round meeting with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is always a difficult opener especially with Stan being the current last slam champion, but this type of pressure is now void from Wawrinka's mind so a potential quarter-final against Andy Murray looks likely, albeit Feliciano Lopez and Fabio Fognini could stop the Swiss prematurely.
So what about Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray? Absent through injury last year, Murray hasn't played at Roland Garros since a four set loss to David Ferrer in the quarter-finals in 2012. But Murray's impressive performance against Nadal in the Rome Masters quarter-finals shows that he definitely has the game to take on any of the top players on a clay court. This has never been one of Murray's favoured surfaces but having missed last year's event he will be very determined to make a mark on the 2014 clay season. The Scot's best showing at the French was in 2011 when he made the semis succumbing to Nadal in three sets but since then he has won two slams and an Olympic Gold medal, so this is a different prospect. Murray has been recently recovering from a back injury and his performance in the Australian Open quarter-final loss to Roger Federer seemed to highlight that he wasn't fully fit (or so it seemed to me) and since the Rome Masters, Murray seems back (no pun intended) to his best. His draw is kind, he looks more likely to make the quarter-finals than Wawrinka, but Verdasco or Gasquet look like the tricky fourth round match that he will have to contend with. We all remember what happened with Verdasco at Wimbledon last year! A quarter-final would be good for Murray, I think Stan is "in the moment" and I reckon he'll have a say in who wins this year's tournament.
A lot of talk lately is of potential future grand slam champions. Grigor Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic have all been touted as future winners but is this justified? Dimitrov made the semis of Rome this season but was comfortably beaten by Nadal. Dimitrov has the "look" of a champion but his game needs improvements and he still doesn't look completely comfortable on a clay court but his quarter-final showing at this year's Australian Open again losing to Nadal shows he definitely has promise. A French Open run looks unlikely especially considering his first round match is against the big serving Ivo Karlovic, someone who causes every player on tour problems, but a Wimbledon run this year does seem realistic for the Bulgarian. Now Kei Nishikori definitely has the game to compete with the top players and his performance against Nadal at the Madrid Open in the final shows that he is also becoming a good clay courter. Since bringing coach and former slam winner Michael Chang to his coaching team his results have improved significantly and with Chang a former French Open winner this makes for a very interesting prospect going into this tournament. Again, Kei still needs to make improvements to his game especially his fitness. He retired before even hitting a ball in the semi-final against Novak in Miami and also against Nadal in the Rome Masters having taken the first set and being a break up in the second. So fitness permitting, we could see some good things from Kei at Roland Garros. In fact if results go with seeding's than a potential fourth round clash with Canadian Milos Raonic may be on the cards. Seeded 8 and 9 respectively, this is the sort of match that determines who has come further in the game with what will be there first slam match together if it were to happen. The big serving Canadian prefers the hard courts which suit his fast and powerful serve and groundstrokes, so a successful run at Roland Garros may come to an end at this stage against Kei but again it shows that all three players will have their time this year to cause some real shocks at grand slam level. However I believe that the Parisian crowd will be seeing some Japanese magic at this year's event.
But who's going to be crowned champion? Djokovic has proved not just this year but also the last few seasons gone by that he is a dogged competitor and with his win in Rome over Rafa he has the upper-hand on the world no.1 and looks the most likely winner. But Rafa will always bring his "A" game to Roland Garros with only one loss in the last nine years he has participated in the competition, so a final between the pair wouldn't be a surprise. It's hard to see anyone stopping these two at the moment but the Swiss pair of Federer and Wawrinka may have something to say on who wins this tournament.
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