US Open 2014 Preview

It has been ten years since Roger Federer claimed his first of five US Open titles, but not since 2008 has the Swiss held the trophy aloft. But after a successful hard-court run where he was runner-up at the Rogers Cup in Toronto and claimed victory at the Cincinnati Masters, Federer heads into the final slam of the year as one of the clear favourites. But is the favourite tag fully justified? Or will a resurgent Novak Djokovic yet again prevent Roger from obtaining an unprecedented 18th Grand Slam title.

Since winning Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic has been showing signs of complacency during matches throughout the American hard-court swing and through a lack of match practice and other off-court distractions the Serb seems a different player. However, this is Novak Djokovic we are talking about and even though he seems extremely rusty at the moment, it is during Grand Slam events that Djokovic is surely to find the winning formula again. The No.1 seed and 2011 winner has a fairly routine opening round match against Argentine Diego Schwartzmann who is making his first appearance at the tournament. In fact it's arguably possible that the Serbian won't face a tricky opponent until the fourth round where home favourite and 13th seed John Isner is likely to await. Although the American doesn't have a great record at the US Open (best performance - Q-F 2011, last year - 3rd Rd), he is America's only realistic hope of a home-grown champion this year. His head-to-head record against Novak is 2-5, and the last meeting between the pair at this year's Indian Wells event was a three set loss, but the American will have to take confidence from last year's win over the Serb at Cincinnati. It still seems unlikely that we will lose Djokovic at this stage of a Grand Slam and the prospect of facing Andy Murray in the quarter-finals is probably what most tennis purists will be hoping for. Murray opens up his US Open campaign against Robin Haase of the Netherlands, who in 2011 was two sets to love up against the Scot before losing in five. So the two-time Grand Slam champion will have to have his wits about him if wants to avoid a potential scare. The main danger the 2012 champion will have to contend with if he is to reach the quarter-final stage is this year's Rogers Cup winner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman defeated Murray in three close sets in Toronto and will offer fierce resistance yet again, but it's whether Tsonga can bring his "A" game for a fortnight at Grand Slam level that is yet to be seen since his stellar run at Roland Garros last year. Statistics point out that when it really matters during Grand Slam matches Tsonga tends to come up short, and it looks likely to happen again. We were all anticipating a semi-final match-up with Djokovic and Murray at Wimbledon this year, and although that didn't come into fruition, this quarter-final set-up looks almost set in stone. Djokovic and Murray will contest what will be the pick of the ties and where this match goes is anybody's guess. No player is coming off the back of any momentum after disappointing tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati so both will look at this match as a chance to rediscover there form and reaffirm themselves as a strong candidate to lift the trophy. Djokovic relishes five set matches and will want to quash the talk that his marriage has deterred his form; his consistency at the US Open is fantastic and it is likely to continue this year for the Serb too.

In case you weren't aware there is a major absentee at Flushing Meadows this year in defending champion and 14-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal. The wrist injury that halted him during the US Open series has now prevented him from competing in the final Grand Slam of the year. The Nadal camp believe that the Spaniard will be ready to play again at the Shanghai Masters and with his place in the end of year ATP World Tour Finals already confirmed, the World No.2 still has much to play for before the close season. One man who won't be missing the two-time US Open champion however is Roger Federer. The Swiss has a favourable draw going into the New York event with the highest seed he will have to face before the quarter-finals being hot-headed Italian Fabio Fognini, the 15th seed. The trickiest encounter before the latter stages though will most likely come from Ivo Karlovic in the third round. Although the Croatian possesses a big serve, Federer can comfortably nullify the threat with his return game which has been evident during his recent encounters with another big server in Milos Raonic. It seems impossible that we will see Federer lose before the quarter-final stage at this year's tournament. A stern performance from Spaniard Tommy Robredo saw Federer lose in the fourth round in three straight sets last year which came as a major shock at the time considering that Roger had a 10-0 record against him. But the inconsistency in Federer's game that plagued him during the 2013 season has well and truly vanished and a quarter-final tie with 7th seeded Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov seems on the cards. The two have never met at Grand Slam level and barring a potential upset for Grigor from either Gael Monfils or Richard Gasquet in the fourth round, this fascinating duel will happen. Dimitrov's coach Roger Rasheed has brought out the best in the Bulgarian since their partnership started last year and it will be interesting to see how it develops throughout the rest of the season and beyond. Dimitrov has never been past the first round here in the three appearances he has made, losing last year to Joao Sousa in five sets. Coincidentally he could face the 32nd seeded man from Portugal in the third round, but a repeat of last year's result looks unlikely. Federer has won his only previous encounter against Dimitrov last year at Basel, but the Bulgarian is a different player since that meeting and with a recent semi-final appearance at Wimbledon that showcased his talents around the tennis world, this is a match-up that has "upset" written all over the court. Federer will no doubt face problems if he does face Dimitrov and although there is that potential of a surprise outcome, I still don't think the apprentice will overcome his "master".

Of course there are other contenders who could pull off a few surprises during the fortnight and none more-so than third seed Stanislas Wawrinka. The Australian Open champion has had a beleaguered season ever since his first round exit at Roland Garros and has never looked likely at winning anything, although his illness against Federer at Wimbledon was unfortunate considering he took the first set. But this tournament should be where "Stan the Man" unlocks the shackles that have held him down since his Masters 1000 victory at Monte Carlo and look to negotiate his way through to the business end of the tournament. His first round match is against new-comer Jiri Vesely; the two have never faced each other before but the Czech did reach the third round at Wimbledon so he knows how to win at Grand Slam level. If there is to be a surprise at the expense of Stan then it will most likely be against Tommy Robredo in a potential fourth round encounter. The 16th seed leads the head-to-head 6-2 but lost to the Swiss at this year's Australian Open in their most recent meeting, so expect a close match. A quarter-final berth for the winner will probably face the rising Canadian Milos Raonic. Like Dimitrov, Raonic has fully realised his potential during 2014 and has been fortunate to receive an extremely comfortable draw. His first round opponent is a Japanese qualifier who has never played in a Grand Slam match before and it's not until the third round where he may face Lukas Rosol that he will likely be tested. Rosol has just come off the back of claiming his second career title at the Winston-Salem Open so will fancy his chances against Raonic. But having had such a consistent season it is hard to see the Canadian losing so early on and with a projected fourth rounder with 10th seed Kei Nishikori, Raonic will want to finish off Rosol as quickly as possible.

The other side of this draw sees Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer, two players who have both made a Grand Slam final and have both won a Masters 1000 title in Paris. The pair also had a disappointing Wimbledon run and will want to make amends at Flushing Meadows. Sixth seeded Berdych faces Lleyton Hewitt in his opening match and not many tennis fans would be surprised to see the Czech lose at the first hurdle. Although the hard-hitting prowess from Berdych will cause Hewitt problems, the Australian is canny in finding a way to somehow win even if the odds are stacked against him. It is also worth noting that a potential second round match for either player could be Steve Darcis, the Belgian hasn't played in a Grand Slam match since knocking Nadal out of Wimbledon in the first round last year and he will be looking to add to his scalp list of top tenner's. The outlook doesn't look much brighter for David Ferrer either, although the fourth seed faces Bosnian qualifier Damir Dzumhur in the opening round, the next round could see a meeting with unpredictable Australian Bernard Tomic. But it is the fourth round where we could see Ferrer fall short with Marin Cilic waiting in amidst the packed draw. Cilic has been playing some exceptional tennis over the last few months under coach Goran Ivanisevic and it wouldn't be a surprise if he makes a deep run in New York.

In the end it will be the usual suspects that will more than likely be amongst the contenders to lift the trophy. We could end up with a repeat of the Wimbledon final but this time I can see Djokovic winning more efficiently. This is the surface that the Serbian feels most comfortable with and Federer hasn't beaten Novak at a Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2012 and has only won three of the last eight meetings that have succeeded it. These are just statistics and although Federer has had a great summer, when it comes to Grand Slams anything before means nothing. This is the "now" and slams enable players to progressively get stronger as the tournament advances and Djokovic is a prime example of this. So it's still hard to see why Federer has been installed as favourite because the Swiss will go into the tournament strongly but fade during the latter stages, whereas Novak will save his best tennis for the business end and in the process claim his second US Open title.

Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic

Dark Horse: Marin Cilic