This summer season has been intriguing to say the least. Since World No.1 Novak Djokovic's convincing Wimbledon title run back in July, it has been difficult to tell what player heads to New York as clear favourite. When Andy Murray beat Djokovic in three sets at the Canada Masters final earlier this month it seemed that the pendulum had slightly swung in favour of the Scot, especially considering it was the first time he had beaten the Serb since his Wimbledon triumph back in 2013. That's one win in nine attempts to put his victory in a better perspective. It also moved the two-time Grand Slam champion to No.2 in the World rankings which would have meant that he would avoid Djokovic at Flushing Meadows until at least the final. But it seemed that everybody had discounted 2015 Wimbledon runner-up Roger Federer of having a final say on how the seedings would pan out for this year's Open. After opting to miss the Masters event in Montreal, the Swiss joined the elite players at the Cincinnati Masters for his first competitive play since the Wimbledon final. The 17-time Grand Slam champion swiftly dispatched his competitors without dropping serve or a set during the tournament and knocked out the No.1 and 2 seeds in the process to claim a record seventh Cincinnati title. By defeating Djokovic in the final he also lifted his head-to-head record against the Serb to 21-20. It also gave the Swiss his No.2 seed back which ultimately puts him in fantastic stead ahead of the US Open. It was only back in 2013 that Federer was seeded 7th for the Open, it has been a remarkable turnaround for a player who has so often been asked to question his retirement plans since his last Grand Slam victory at Wimbledon in 2012.
Another player who has been under the spotlight recently is Rafa Nadal. The Spaniard has suffered a severe slump in form but should not be written off just yet. You don't win 14 Grand Slam titles without having a fighting spirit. Ironically, 2013 was the year when Nadal won his second US Open title and Federer's form was slumping and now fast-forward to 2015 and it's Nadal seeded 8th in the draw with Federer heading in as one of the favourites. If Federer's slump was only temporary, then why can't Nadal's be? The 29 year-old has had a disappointing US Open series so far by losing to Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals in Montreal and to Feliciano Lopez in the third round in Cincinnati and it's difficult to fathom how the Spaniard is going to find his form again. He looks vulnerable against most players but Nadal has offered some hope to himself and his fans with this statement prior to the US Open:
"I feel great physically, and that's important for me because that's giving me the confidence in my body that's always been very important (for) the intensity of my movements. If I'm healthy and I have the chance to keep working the way I'm working now, I believe that I can keep competing well for the next couple of years and keep having chances in the big event".
Nadal missed last year's US Open with a wrist injury and it left a notable void in the draw so it's great to see him back nonetheless.
Before we dissect the draw we can't forget to look at other players whose impressionable seasons could make a lasting impact at this year's Open. Defending champion Marin Cilic coasted through the latter stages of his triumphant run last year defeating Tomas Berdych, Federer and Nishikori without dropping a set. It could have been the start of something special for the Croat but the status of "One Slam Wonder" is something the 26 year-old might have to contend with considering his tennis since then hasn't been quite as great, albeit with some injuries. His opponent in that final Kei Nishikori has fared much better throughout 2015, although he too has had to deal with injury problems. Nishikori has captured titles in Memphis and Barcelona and most recently the Washington Open where he defeated John Isner in three sets. But after a decent run through to the semi-finals at the Rogers Cup, the Japanese World No. 4 pulled out of the Cincinnati Masters citing a hip injury and fatigue. It's worrying times for Nishikori fans seeing as it's so near to the US Open and considering his past injury problems which forced him to pull out of this summer's Wimbledon as one example, a deep run in New York doesn't look promising. Stan Wawrinka will be closely monitored during the next fortnight as well and if he can replicate his form from Paris, then we could be looking at a potential winner. But his dramatic loss to Richard Gasquet at the quarter-finals of Wimbledon show that Stan is vulnerable if not playing at 100%. The other players who round out the top ten are Tomas Berdych (6), David Ferrer (7) and Milos Raonic (10). All have had indifferent seasons and will be looking to make a good impression in the last slam of the season.
"I feel great physically, and that's important for me because that's giving me the confidence in my body that's always been very important (for) the intensity of my movements. If I'm healthy and I have the chance to keep working the way I'm working now, I believe that I can keep competing well for the next couple of years and keep having chances in the big event".
Nadal missed last year's US Open with a wrist injury and it left a notable void in the draw so it's great to see him back nonetheless.
Before we dissect the draw we can't forget to look at other players whose impressionable seasons could make a lasting impact at this year's Open. Defending champion Marin Cilic coasted through the latter stages of his triumphant run last year defeating Tomas Berdych, Federer and Nishikori without dropping a set. It could have been the start of something special for the Croat but the status of "One Slam Wonder" is something the 26 year-old might have to contend with considering his tennis since then hasn't been quite as great, albeit with some injuries. His opponent in that final Kei Nishikori has fared much better throughout 2015, although he too has had to deal with injury problems. Nishikori has captured titles in Memphis and Barcelona and most recently the Washington Open where he defeated John Isner in three sets. But after a decent run through to the semi-finals at the Rogers Cup, the Japanese World No. 4 pulled out of the Cincinnati Masters citing a hip injury and fatigue. It's worrying times for Nishikori fans seeing as it's so near to the US Open and considering his past injury problems which forced him to pull out of this summer's Wimbledon as one example, a deep run in New York doesn't look promising. Stan Wawrinka will be closely monitored during the next fortnight as well and if he can replicate his form from Paris, then we could be looking at a potential winner. But his dramatic loss to Richard Gasquet at the quarter-finals of Wimbledon show that Stan is vulnerable if not playing at 100%. The other players who round out the top ten are Tomas Berdych (6), David Ferrer (7) and Milos Raonic (10). All have had indifferent seasons and will be looking to make a good impression in the last slam of the season.
The draw for a major is always closely analysed by tennis enthusiasts and the media alike. Why? Well a favourable draw can considerably help player's chances at making a deep run, whereas an unfavourable draw could hinder player's chances from progressing very far. For example, Djokovic's opening round match is against Brazil's Joao Souza and although they have never met, Souza won't have enough fire power to truly trouble the Serbian, so that would be considered a favourable opener. On the other-hand Rafa Nadal has a tricky opener against teenager Borna Coric. The Croat beat the Spaniard in there only other meeting last year in Basel, although it was just before Nadal was due to have appendix surgery, so it's hard to predict how the outcome of this one will pan out. Coric has been a regular fixture in conversations for future stars and was awarded the ATP Star of Tomorrow at the end of last season, but he has yet to make an impact at Grand Slam level. Could this be the first upset of the tournament? It sure has the makings of one. If Rafa does negotiate his way through this tie then he could meet another rising player in Sweden's 19 year-old Elias Ymer. Elias has earned a notable achievement in qualifying for all four Grand Slam events this year, so is definitely a player to watch out for. Nadal also has Fabio Fognini, Feliciano Lopez and Milos Raonic all lurking before the quarter-finals, players that the Spaniard has lost to this season, so nothing comes easy for the two-time US Open champion. Djokovic has a rather comfortable looking draw but could be troubled in round four if he meets 14th seed David Goffin. The Belgian was dictating much of the play during his three set loss to Novak in Cincinnati and showed that if he plays to his ability, then Djokovic will definitely be weary.
Last year's runner-up Kei Nishikori has an awkward first rounder against Frenchman Benoit Paire and then has potential meetings with Alexandr Dolgopolov, Tommy Robredo and Gael Monfils if the draw goes by seedings. A repeat of last year's final is also on the cards in the quarter-finals against Marin Cilic, although it's hard to see the Croat getting that far. Much has been said of Andy Murray's chances for this year's title especially with his victory over Novak in Montreal. The Scot starts off against controversial Australian Nick Kyrgios who he has met twice already this year in Grand Slams beating him in straight sets on both occasions. Although billed as a "big" match, this should be another straight setter for Andy as he is so comfortable at nullifying the serving threat that Kyrgios poses. To be honest, Murray will be very pleased with his draw, only Kevin Anderson the 15th seed strikes out as a challenge for the Scot in the fourth round, but his head-to-head with the South African is 5-1, so there shouldn't be too many problems there either. However, it's the quarter-final against Stan Wawrinka that will be the most interesting match-up. The last meeting between the pair was at Flushing Meadows two years ago and Stan won in straight sets and even though the head-to-head is 8-6 in favour of Murray, I would expect it to be a very close encounter. Federer is also looking at a very favourable draw, although his first rounder with Leonardo Mayer will be intriguing. The only time they met was last year in Shanghai where Federer won in a final set tie-breaker 9-7, so this match isn't as clear to call as people may think. Should the Swiss find a way to overcome Mayer, then the rest of his half looks negotiable and a meeting with Berdych in the quarters, followed by either Murray or Wawrinka in the semis looks likely.
This year's Open is extremely hard to call and just like Wimbledon, Murray and Federer come in as favourites with their most recent titles on the hard courts. But Novak is just too hard to write-off and although the Serb has admitted that his game hasn't been up to scratch since winning Wimbledon, he always seems to find a way at Grand Slams to find that extra level again. Novak has only won the US Open once and clearly struggles with the windy conditions that engulf the Arthur Ashe Stadium, but should he successfully contend with the conditions and his opponents like he so often does, then it's just impossible to not pick him as my winner for the 2015 US Open.
Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic
Dark Horse: Stan Wawrinka
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